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The next presidential election is set to be the most unpredictable in recent history, with a host of potential political shocks in the making.
Here are six things to know about how the elections will unfold.
1.
Who is in charge?
A series of polls, conducted by the International Crisis Group, predict the election could end in a tie.
This poll, conducted in the aftermath of the Panama Papers leak, has put the chances of a repeat of the election being close to 70%.
Polling suggests it will be close to 90%.
A similar poll conducted in November 2016 had the chance of a tie at 71%.
2.
What is the electoral college?
A majority of states in the US have either a single-member legislature or an “emancipated” legislature.
These systems have seen the electoral process changed since the 1800s.
In the US, a “redistricting” process has been used since 2010 to make the process more geographically compact.
These redrawings can also be used to reshape the electoral map.
This process has had a profound impact on the electoral system in the country.
Currently, two states (Montana and Wyoming) are the only two states in which no state has a single representative.
3.
Who runs?
President Trump has repeatedly said he would run for re-election.
However, many believe he is a lame duck at this point.
While his approval ratings are lower than Hillary Clinton, he has a strong following in rural and blue states.
If the results are close, Trump would have the backing of a majority of Republicans in Congress.
If he loses, there would be a constitutional crisis.
4.
How close are they?
The closest in the polls are Alaska, where Trump has a 42% approval rating, and Colorado, where he has 42% support.
If Trump loses, the polls suggest that the race will be closer.
The polling average is currently at about 48%.
5.
What does a tie mean?
A “toss-up” means a tie between the candidates.
If a tie is achieved, the outcome is decided by two-thirds of the electoral votes.
If no candidate wins a majority, the winner of the state will be determined by two other candidates.
In this election, if Trump wins the popular vote and a plurality of states holds a popular vote, he will be president.
6.
How do we know which candidate will win?
All of the polls have put the odds of a Republican winning the White House at around 55%.
However, there are several scenarios that could change the outcome.
In some scenarios, the margin of victory could be reduced to a margin of defeat.
In other scenarios, Trump could win by a much smaller margin.
However if there is a tie, the election will still be close.
The winner will be decided by the winner’s combined total of the votes.
