How to predict the outcome of the 2018 presidential election

The next presidential election is set to be the most unpredictable in recent history, with a host of potential political shocks in the making.

Here are six things to know about how the elections will unfold.

1.

Who is in charge?

A series of polls, conducted by the International Crisis Group, predict the election could end in a tie.

This poll, conducted in the aftermath of the Panama Papers leak, has put the chances of a repeat of the election being close to 70%.

Polling suggests it will be close to 90%.

A similar poll conducted in November 2016 had the chance of a tie at 71%.

2.

What is the electoral college?

A majority of states in the US have either a single-member legislature or an “emancipated” legislature.

These systems have seen the electoral process changed since the 1800s.

In the US, a “redistricting” process has been used since 2010 to make the process more geographically compact.

These redrawings can also be used to reshape the electoral map.

This process has had a profound impact on the electoral system in the country.

Currently, two states (Montana and Wyoming) are the only two states in which no state has a single representative.

3.

Who runs?

President Trump has repeatedly said he would run for re-election.

However, many believe he is a lame duck at this point.

While his approval ratings are lower than Hillary Clinton, he has a strong following in rural and blue states.

If the results are close, Trump would have the backing of a majority of Republicans in Congress.

If he loses, there would be a constitutional crisis.

4.

How close are they?

The closest in the polls are Alaska, where Trump has a 42% approval rating, and Colorado, where he has 42% support.

If Trump loses, the polls suggest that the race will be closer.

The polling average is currently at about 48%.

5.

What does a tie mean?

A “toss-up” means a tie between the candidates.

If a tie is achieved, the outcome is decided by two-thirds of the electoral votes.

If no candidate wins a majority, the winner of the state will be determined by two other candidates.

In this election, if Trump wins the popular vote and a plurality of states holds a popular vote, he will be president.

6.

How do we know which candidate will win?

All of the polls have put the odds of a Republican winning the White House at around 55%.

However, there are several scenarios that could change the outcome.

In some scenarios, the margin of victory could be reduced to a margin of defeat.

In other scenarios, Trump could win by a much smaller margin.

However if there is a tie, the election will still be close.

The winner will be decided by the winner’s combined total of the votes.